Gregory was formulating his theory, which was almost exactly what Holmes had foretold in the train. "The net is drawn pretty close round Fitzroy Simpson," he remarked, "and I believe myself that he is our man. At the same time I recognize that the evidence is purely circumstantial, and that some new development may upset it." "How about Straker's knife?" "We have quite come to the conclusion that he wounded himself in his fall." "My friend Dr. Watson made that suggestion to me as we came down. If so, it would tell against this man Simpson." "Undoubtedly. He has neither a knife nor any sign of a wound. The evidence against him is certainly very strong. He had a great interest in the disappearance of the favorite. He lies under suspicion of having poisoned the stable-boy, he was undoubtedly out in the storm, he was armed with a heavy stick, and his cravat was found in the dead man's hand.